Grain Market Commentary for 08-03-10

Soybean Complex Market Recap for 08-03-10

September Soybeans ended  2 3/4 higher at 1022, 16 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. November Soybeans closed up 6 at 1016. This was 2 1/2 off the high and 18 1/4 up from the low.

August Soymeal settled 2.4 lower at 308.5. This was 2.5 off the high and 2.6 up from the low.

August Soybean Oil ended 0.51 higher at 40.95, 0.72 up from the low and 0.1 off the high.

November soybeans moved lower overnight and before gaining steadily during the day session. These gains took the November contract to higher on the day by late morning with another round of new highs coming prior to the close. Spread movement was active today with November gaining sharply on the nearby August contract to end the day. New crop meal posted a smaller gain on old crop meal. December oil posted a substantial gain on December meal early in the day before giving up most of its gains into the close. Moderate to heavy rains fell in Iowa early this morning with totals became much heavier as the system moved across northern Illinois. Five inches fell at Joliet, Illinois before the system moved on through northern and central Indiana and into central Ohio. Forecasts call for a cooler air system to push into the central and eastern Midwest late this week and into Saturday, but the hot air mass to the south is expected to get pushed to the south and west before it pushes back into the heart of the Midwest next week. The USDA announced a sale of 223,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China this morning for delivery during 2010/11. Soil moisture continues to be excessive in the west and north central Midwest with less dryness in the eastern Midwest after today’s rains.

Corn Market Review for 08-03-10

September Corn finished down 1 at 389 1/2, 5 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. December Corn settled down 1/2 at 404. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.

December corn traded lower during the last half of the overnight session before continuing to trade mostly lower during the day session. Traders said that fresh gains in crude oil helped to support soybeans and corntoday in comparison to wheat. Buying by spreaders versus wheat was active today and traders said that this also provided support. Moderate to heavy rains fell in Iowa early this morning with totals became much heavier as the system moved across northern Illinois. Five inches fell at Joliet, Illinois before the system moved on through northern and central Indiana and into central Ohio. Forecasts call for a cooler air system to push into the central and eastern Midwest late this week and into Saturday, but the hot air mass to the south is expected to get pushed to the south and west before it pushes back into the heart of the Midwest next week. An Israeli firm is tendering for up to 48,000 tonnes of corn and 31,000 tonnes of corn products.

September Rice finished up 0.07 at 10.76, 0.03 off the high and 0.07 up from the low.

Wheat Market Review Report for 08-03-10

September Wheat finished 13 1/4 lower at 680, 5 1/4 up from the low and 17 1/2 off the high. December Wheat closed 13 3/4 lower at 709 3/4. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 18 1/4 off the high.

The wheat market was the leader to the downside among the grains today after its much-publicized leadership to the upside in recent days and weeks. Continued severe drought in Russia was countered to some extent today by reports that production losses may not have been as bad as feared in Germany and elsewhere in Western Europe. France is said to be two-thirds harvested while more northern countries such as the UK are just getting underway. Traders said that profit taking and a lack of buying by funds helped to keep the pressure on throughout the day. Selling by spreaders versus corn was also evident today. The USDA announced a sale of 110,000 of hard red winter wheat to an unknown destination this morning. The sale is for delivery during the 2010/11 marketing year. Tunisia is tendering for 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat according to trade sources. Russia has indicated that it will not institute a ban on grain exports, but traders indicate that they are skeptical that the Russian government can maintain a normal program of exports as domestic food prices soar.

December Oats finished down 1 1/2 at 288. This was 15 up from the low and 3 off the high.

After reading ï»¿today’s commentary,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders  momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.  Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

Andy Waldock publishes this blog.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his relatives, or his clients in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage.  Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk.  If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting  on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.

The daily commentaries provide a analysis of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule.  Market commentaries for wheat, soybeans, corn, silver and gold are provided by CME Group.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.