07-16-10 Grain Market Recap

Corn Market Analysis for 7/16/2010

September Corn settled up 2 1/4 at 394 3/4, 7 1/4 up from the low and 1 off the high. December Corn ended up 2 at 407 1/4.  This was 1   1/4 off the high and 7 up from the low.

December corn posted modest losses this morning with little change in price into early afternoon. However, price firmed back near the early highs prior to the close. Weather forecasts continue to call for hot weather with high humidity in much of the Midwest this weekend with very hot conditions starting near the middle of next week and possibly extending to as late as early August. December corn fell short of yesterday’s highs in the early going, but it posted a substantial gain versus wheat on the day in moderately active trade by spreaders. This follows a series of sharp and largely uncorrected gains by wheat over corn in the December contracts over the past 5 weeks. Basis levels for corn at the Gulf were steady this morning. Traders indicate that poor quality corn is commanding a sharp discount there amid reports that exporters have been dropping bids in an effort to prevent a buildup of damaged corn at the Gulf.

September Rice finished up 0.03 at 9.855, 0.015 off the high and 0.05 up from the low.September Rice closed up 0.03 at 9.855, 0.015 off the high and 0.05 up from the lowSeptember Rice settled up 0.03 at 9.855, 0.015 off the high and 0.05 up from the lowSeptember Rice ended up 0.03 at 9.855, 0.05 up from the low and 0.015 off the high.

 Wheat Market Commentary Report for 7/16/2010

September Wheat closed down 9 at 587 1/4, 8 1/2 up from the low and 10 1/2 off the high. December Wheat finished down 8 1/2 at 616. This was 8 off the high and 8 1/4 up from the low. 

Wheat fell in Europe and the US today after an active week that saw sharp advances in wheat around the world. Traders said that a lack of fresh news prompted evening up and profit taking ahead of the weekend. December wheat lost ground to new crop July into early afternoon. Chicago December wheat also lost to December KC wheat while posting a larger loss against Minneapolis with all three markets firming into the close. Traders said that spread action was a significant feature today in an otherwise quiet and featureless trade. Traders said that lackluster export sales yesterday may have also dampened buyers’ enthusiasm. Italian imports of soft wheat were up 26% to 1.522 million tonnes during the first 4 months of 2010 according to a major grain association this morning.

December Oats ended down 1/2 at 275. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 6 off the high.

Soybean Complex Market Recap for 7/16/2010

August Soybeans closed up 1/2 at 1019 1/2, 6 1/2 up from the low and 7 1/2 off the high. November Soybeans finished down 3 at 985. This was 7 3/4 off the high and 6 3/4 up from the low.

August Soymeal closed up 0.2 at 307.8. This was 3.0 up from the low and 1.7 off the high.

August Soybean Oil finished down 0.28 at 38.31, 0.21 up from the low and 0.38 off the high.

November soybeans posted a new high for the move overnight and then extended its gains to start the day session. However, the market ran out of buyers on the early advance and November soybeans pushed lower on the day on into early afternoon before firming into the close. This came amid firmer bids for cash soybeans at the Gulf which traders said was in response to strong demand. Evening up ahead of the weekend was considered a major feature on the day with some light to moderate activity in the old crop/new crop soybean spreads with old crop gaining on new crop on the day. The meal/oil was mostly choppy today with trade on the light side after an active week. Some forecasts call for hot and dry weather to last through the end of July and into early August, which was considered supportive on a day marked by profit taking.

With today’s analysis talking mostly about hot and dry weather concerns, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.  Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a summary of each commodity’s traded price activity, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule.  CME Group provides market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, silver and gold.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

Andy Waldock circulates this blog.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his customers, or his family in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a dialogue and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading  may not be appropriate for all investors.  There is substantial risk in investing in commodity futures.  If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting  on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.